An Optional Stopping Theorem
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Optional Stopping
Introduction Suppose you are determined to “prove” that green apples cause cancer. An Optional Stopping strategy (OS) is where you keep looking sampling experimental data until the observed correlation between eating green applies and cancer is significantly different from 0 (where “significantly” means that the null hypothesis is rejected by standard statistical tests). That is, you follow a r...
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Optional stopping refers to the practice of peeking at data and then, based on the results, deciding whether or not to continue an experiment. In the context of ordinary significance-testing analysis, optional stopping is discouraged, because it necessarily leads to increased type I error rates over nominal values. This article addresses whether optional stopping is problematic for Bayesian inf...
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Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is the most commonly used statistical methodology in psychology. The probability of achieving a value as extreme or more extreme than the statistic obtained from the data is evaluated, and if it is low enough, the null hypothesis is rejected. However, because common experimental practice often clashes with the assumptions underlying NHST, these calcul...
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Accepting a sequence of independent positive mean bets that are individually unacceptable is what Samuelson called a fallacy of large numbers. Recently, utility functions were characterized where this occurs rationally, and examples were given of utility functions where any finite number of good bets should never be accepted.1 Here the author shows how things change if you are allowed the optio...
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We prove that every two-player nonzero-sum deterministic stopping game with uniformly bounded payoffs admits an ε-equilibrium, for every ε > 0. The proof uses Ramsey Theorem that states that for every coloring of a complete infinite graph by finitely many colors there is a complete infinite subgraph which is monochromatic. 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved. JEL classification: ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Annals of Mathematical Statistics
سال: 1969
ISSN: 0003-4851
DOI: 10.1214/aoms/1177697739